And the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union possessed an arsenal of administrative and economic impacts on the outskirts of the national minorities and. Antitadzhikskaya hysterics - another proof that the current Russian government attempted to replace the political mechanisms of PR. And on this field you can easily lose even such a rival, such as Tajikistan.
' Continuing drama of the capture of our airmen hostage in Tajikistan. It's somewhere in Asia, one of the former Soviet Union '- probably because the news would have started in the U.S. March 12, 2011, if the detainees were American citizens. This was followed by a special statement of the president, it would be an embargo of that country, and aircraft carriers and naval detachments across the mountains and valleys would have rushed to save the next Private Ryan.
In Russia, only realized it on November 11, when a Tajik court sentenced a Russian citizen Vladimir Sadovnichy and Alexey Rudenko, a citizen of Estonia to the eight and a half years in penal colony on charges of violation of flight rules, illegally crossing the border of Tajikistan and the smuggling of aircraft engine. March 12 Sadovnichy Rudenko and flown two AN -72 Russian airlines Rolkan, carrying on the contract with U.S. firm Supreme Food peaceful cargo for coalition forces in Afghanistan. Emergency landing at the airport in the Tajik city of Kurgan -Tube was caused by a lack of fuel to return to base, the flight to Kabul, and the need to refuel. However, immediately after landing, the pilots were detained Tajiks.
Tajik court has also decided to confiscate the planes of Russian airline. After the verdict in the Russian Foreign Ministry official commentary said that he considered it extremely harsh and politically engaged, pledging to continue providing necessary assistance to compatriots. The phrase ' to continue to provide ' led me to think that any help Sadovnichy and Rudenko has provided. However, the official information from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that the entire previous history with the Russian pilot was in communication with him, visiting the diligent staff of the Embassy of the proceedings, as well as in response to Minister Lavrov on the question of a journalist. It is surprising that such a powerful diplomatic barrage did not save Russia from the Tajik civil prison.
The reasons are mainly what happened with the version of conspiracy bias. On one of them, Tajikistan plans to trade on the pilot convicted languishing in a Russian prison a relative of President Emomali Rakhmonov, who was convicted for transporting 9 kilograms of heroin. According to another version, to blame an insidious hand of China, seeking to oust Russia in Central Asia.
Indicative of the FMS of Russia sent hundreds of workers, and the chief sanitary doctor Gennady Onishchenko has proposed a ban on medical grounds migration from Tajikistan, as originating from Central Asian countries revealed too many cases of HIV and TB. The air smelled Moldovan and Georgian wine, mineral water.
For Dushanbe, as in his time for Chisinau and Tbilisi have really found their own vulnerable issue - migrants. But the deportation of Tajik workers at first glance seems the most obvious answer to the condemnation of the Russian pilot. In recent years, migrants have become vulnerable point for Russia. A relationship with them can be called more interdependent, as demand for the labor market for unskilled labor is met mainly due to migrant workers. ( Poll of leading political parties ' Does Russia need migrants? ' See the section ' Direct Speech '. ).
It is best to depth relationship, and therefore reflect the vulnerability of data on the number of migrants and the amounts they have created a niche in the labor market. According to official statistics, only in Russia in 2011 attracted 1.7 million under the quota of foreign experts, of which 200-250 thousand. working capital. ... man - says ' Money ' director of the Center for Migration Studies Jeanne Zayonchkovskaya. - Even the order of 1.5 million migrant workers from CIS countries in Russia are officially employed under the contract and pay taxes '.
Probably from the summation of the above two categories are added and recorded by FMS 1.7 million people. But the reliability of migration statistics has always been questions from the experts sitting in their offices, and ordinary people that go to the streets. ' Even the order of 4-5 million migrant workers from CIS countries are legally in Russia (almost all now in one way or another make out the registration ). However, work illegally, without issuing an employment contract and salary are not white - says Joan Zayonchkovskaya. - Speaking of the national component of the migrants from the CIS, the share of immigrants from Tajikistan is not more than 20%, the share of immigrants from Uzbekistan's higher - 30% '.
This balance of power in the market for unskilled labor is confirmed by the statistics of the Central Bank and the volume of money transfers from Russia to CIS countries. In the second quarter of 2011, Tajikistan has been transferred more than $ 740 million, while in Uzbekistan - almost $ 1.1 billion. For comparison, the Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan were transferred $ 600 million and $ 400 million, respectively,. In 2010, the total volume of money transfers from Russia to Tajikistan amounted to $ 2.2 billion, and the first half of 2011 - $ 1.2 billion.
Despite the relative modesty of the average translation ( $ 366, or slightly more than 11 thousand. rub. ), The value of the money for Tajik households and the economy of the Central Asian republics critical. The GDP of Tajikistan in 2010 exceeded $ 5.6 billion, which means that the share of transfers from Russia is 40 % of the economy. It should be noted that official statistics do not reflect the whole picture of the movement of cash flows. Many migrants do not trust banks and payment systems and prefer to carry money on their own or to transmit them through the family - the residents of neighboring villages. And then to use existing in the East for centuries informal money transfer systems - Hawala. According to experts, the size of unrecorded cash flows from Russia to Tajikistan can be quite comparable in scale to the official translations. This means that the dependence of the Tajik economy from migrant rent almost total.
Based on the statistics of the Central Bank and expert judgments can be assumed that the monetary size of the Russian market of migrant workers can make up to $ 40 billion per year, of which $ 8 billion accounted for by immigrants from Tajikistan. ' The expulsion of the Tajiks ' lead to their niche in the market will take people from other former Soviet republics. And because people from Tajikistan are willing to work at the lowest price, the price of their care for migrant labor will increase.
But in the possibility of mass deportations do not believe, it seems, neither in Moscow nor Dushanbe. The more that pay for the expulsion of hundreds of thousands of people have the expense of Russian taxpayers. In addition to rescuing Russian airmen 's too complicated path, fraught with accusations of racial cleansing and ethnic discrimination. ' It is much faster and effectively would ban the Central Bank to hold all payments and any transactions with Tajikistan. A week to residents of Dushanbe to the streets, and a month later Rakhmonov would be followed by former President Ben Ali of Tunisia in Saudi Arabia '- said,' Money ' an official of the government staff, who asked to remain anonymous.
The raid on migrants - a noisy reaction to the verdict of the Tajik authorities to court Russian pilots. However, it would be much more efficient, for example, to block remittances to Tajikistan.
In any case, the Tajik authorities smell of Moldovan wine and Georgian mineral water, it seems, caught. The Prosecutor's Office in Tajikistan at the end of last week protested the verdict Estonian and Russian pilots and asked the court to mitigate the punishment for them. But even if right now, and without a formal court pilots will be at liberty, confusion, bordering on astonishment, not going anywhere.
Economic and political stability in Tajikistan is dependent on wage labor migrants in Russia, and Tajikistan are guaranteed the existence of Russian military bases stationed on its territory. As you can imagine that the failed state ( failed state ), a wholly dependent on Russia may decide to arrest and conviction of Russian citizens? .
Hurried to complete the picture last Wednesday and the Transnistrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Foreign Ministry no one recognized the republic sent a protest note to Russia, which has expressed its dissatisfaction with overly long inspections of the Transnistrian delegation in Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport. It should be recalled that Russia has not only saved from a hostile takeover Transnistria Moldova, but is the only country that is ready -or how seriously the claim to independence of the breakaway republic.
It is clear that the U.S. judge Victor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko. Although, by the way, it should be noted that our Foreign Ministry defended its much more active than the pilot Vladimir Sadovnichy. The smuggling of weapons - this is not the carriage of aircraft engine parts: the threads leading to the army warehouses, factories and private defense force officials from the Federal State Unitary Enterprise of the Smolensk area fuss more quickly. However, with the same low efficiency.
It is unclear when this way begin to behave satellites. Here one can draw the obvious parallels with the provocative behavior of some natives of the Northern Caucasus in the European part of the country. In this respect, the difference between the Russian North Caucasus and Central Asia is formally independent is an illusion. First, because in terms of management of large spaces is like the relationship between the metropolis and the colonies. Second, because beamed into the Caucasus and the Near Abroad signal - the same.
With the collapse of the USSR, Russia has lost nearly mechanisms of action: to apply the whip enough strength only occasionally, and the stick itself is not enough. Financial, information and educational technology, by which Britain could retain its influence in its former colonies in Russia proved to be too cumbersome. As a result of conducting a meaningful regional and foreign policy was substituted with a political public relations in these areas.
The transition from the field of real Russian policy in the field of PR-technologies has been enthusiastically received by our neighbors and partners: the latter is easier to beat. And if you succeed, then win something tangible.
EUGENE WHITEFISH.
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